Spot market trading weakened, while SHFE tin prices maintained a fluctuating upward trend [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Tin Morning News on June 9, 2025:

Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2507) maintained a volatile trend, closing near 263,000 yuan/mt.

Macro: (1) Short-term "suspension of applications" for home appliance subsidies in multiple regions, mainly due to activity upgrades or ongoing policy research and formulation for the next phase (bearish ★). (2) According to preliminary statistics from the China Passenger Car Association, from May 1 to 31, nationwide passenger vehicle retail sales reached 1.93 million units, up 13% YoY and 10% MoM (bullish ★). (3) As consumers pursue higher-level display effects, a new round of market competition has emerged. It is estimated that OLED monitor shipments will increase by 80.6% YoY in 2025, with the penetration rate in the overall monitor market rising to 2%, and potentially reaching 5% by 2028. (4) Tariffs: ① Japanese media: The US has shown flexibility in reducing additional reciprocal tariffs on Japan. ② Sources: US and Indian negotiators may finalise tariff reductions and market access issues, reaching a provisional agreement. ③ Trump: A good trade agreement will be reached with Germany (neutral).

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Overall tin ore supply in major producing regions such as Yunnan has tightened. As June approaches, some smelters are considering halting production for maintenance or slightly cutting production (bullish ★). (2) Demand side: Recently, as tin prices have returned to the 260,000 yuan threshold, orders from most downstream enterprises have decreased, and purchase willingness has weakened (bullish ★).

Spot Market: Trading in the spot market has weakened. Most traders reported sluggish trading last Friday, with almost no orders placed, and low purchase willingness from downstream and end-user clients. Some trading enterprises have already exited the market with their previous inventory and are planning to restock.